Obama wins, 338 to 200. Popular vote for Obama is above 50%. McCain doesn't break 48%. Democrats reach 60 in the Senate and pick up about 12 House seats. Obama wins battleground states of OH, PA, FL, VA, NV, CO, NM, but he loses and MO, NC, IN. Here's my full election map:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1&save=3-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-3-1-3-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-1-3-1-1-1-3-3-3-3-3-1-1-1-3-1-3

COMMENTS: I worry that the easy money policies the fed is using to deal with the credit crunch will cause a serious inflation problem to hit his first term. (They want him to look like Jimmy Carter anyway). But I think there is also a good chance that by the time he runs for re-election the economy will be in good shape and he'll be a two term president. Obama is one of the four best vehicles the Democrats have ever had, along with Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Clinton. Voter turnout will be immensely high. Watch for an incredible amount of whining by the Republicans.

Given the historic nature of the Obama candidacy and the potential for new voters, this election is difficult to predict. Thus, I will not deviate from my analysis/prediction of nearly three weeks ago. It is not so much Obama-Biden (although Obama has run a brilliant campaign to get to this point), but Dow Jones that has been beating McCain. Yes, there are polls that show Obama with leads approaching double digits, but I still don't buy it (Carter is the only Democrat since the Johnson landslide to get more than 50 percent of the vote - at 50.1%). And remember that much of the Obama lead is premised on California and New York. Those two states account for four percentage points of the lead. Also, few national polls have Obama over 50 percent - and I predict that the majority of remaining undecideds will break for McCain.

My prediction remains Obama 291, McCain 247. Of the remaining toss-up states, I have Obama winning Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and - most critically - Pennsylvania. I have McCain taking North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. If McCain loses any of these, then a rout might be on.

McCain's path to victory is slim, with his best shot coming from upsets in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

The Democrats have the wind to their backs in Congress, and it is possible that the Democratic wave may lift Obama's numbers. Thus, McCain's late raising of the "Pelosi-Reid-Obama Democratic lock on Washington" argument - along with taxes - may give some voters pause before giving so much power to one party. That said, I see the Democrats picking up eight seats - thus a 57-41-2 split (essentially a 59-41 split, accounting for Sanders and Lieberman). I am most unsure about Minnesota, where Coleman is in trouble because of the third party candidate pulling some 15 percent of the vote from him.

I am largely in agreement with Sean. I agree that the popular vote for Obama will be above 50%. I think that Democrats will fall just short of 60 in the Senate and win 59 seats. I think that the net gain for dems will be substantial in the House: net gain of about 23.

As for picking particular states, I place OH, PA (this is considered a battleground?), FL, VA, NV, CO, and NM in the Obama column. To differ slightly, I will place NC in the Obama column, but this is the one that I am least sure about. I will call it my "upset" pick. I think McCain keeps IN and MO. This leads to a prediction of an Obama total of 353.

As to the comment regarding inflationary pressures in the economy, I am not certain. I really think that we are in somewhat uncharted territory regarding the economy. The renewed strength of the US dollar has helped the economy recently in terms of inflation (see especially oil), but the massive debt, and the uncertainty in the terms of the bailout (how large will the equity stake actually be?) consipire to make a mess that could take quite a time to resolve.